Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Sophie Okonedo win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $50 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$50.28

Combined PnL

-$8.29

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$49.14

Total Shares49

Combined PnL-$0.08

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.15

Total Shares328

Combined PnL-$8.21

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.93	-$0.03	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.16	$19.13	-$0.03	33% 313-636 (949)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.1	$5.09	-$0.01	42% 1658-2297 (3955)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$4.99	$4.98	-$0.01	33% 286-585 (871)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$24.18	$0.55	-$4.17	28% 3241-8219 (11460)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.72	$0.22	-$1.5	35% 3830-6996 (10826)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.42	$0.18	-$1.24	38% 289-472 (761)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.08	$0.14	-$0.94	36% 268-480 (748)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.41	$0.05	-$0.36	18% 855-3966 (4821)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.93

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$19.16

Value

$19.13

PnL

-$0.03

Record

33%

313-636 (949)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0.01

Record

42%

1658-2297 (3955)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.01

Record

33%

286-585 (871)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.18

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$4.17

Record

28%

3241-8219 (11460)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.72

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$1.5

Record

35%

3830-6996 (10826)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$1.24

Record

38%

289-472 (761)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.94

Record

36%

268-480 (748)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.36

Record

18%

855-3966 (4821)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.