Will Song Yadong be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 98¢ · $352 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$351.67

Combined PnL

$1.51

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 98.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$331.5

Total Shares338

Combined PnL-$0.9

Yes2 traders

Total Value$19.57

Total Shares799

Combined PnL+$2.42

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME merod	Noavg 98.4¢	$133.6	$133.12	-$0.48	44% 2775-3595 (6370)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$76.69	$76.64	-$0.06	56% 5852-4578 (10430)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$42.4	$42.25	-$0.15	92% 8456-738 (9194)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$40.42	$40.2	-$0.22	50% 7785-7688 (15473)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$39.29	$39.29	+$0	39% 2924-4522 (7446)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$13.16	$18.68	+$1.71	41% 1295-1879 (3174)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$0.18	$0.89	+$0.71	32% 6340-13238 (19578)

merod

Invested

$133.6

Value

$133.12

PnL

-$0.48

Record

44%

2775-3595 (6370)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$76.69

Value

$76.64

PnL

-$0.06

Record

56%

5852-4578 (10430)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$42.4

Value

$42.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

92%

8456-738 (9194)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$40.42

Value

$40.2

PnL

-$0.22

Record

50%

7785-7688 (15473)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$39.29

Value

$39.29

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

2924-4522 (7446)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.16

Value

$18.68

PnL

+$1.71

Record

41%

1295-1879 (3174)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.89

PnL

+$0.71

Record

32%

6340-13238 (19578)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.