Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$7.7K
$194.66
96.4¢ → 98.2¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
662h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $7.6K | $5.3K | +$263.17 | 46% 466-545 (1011) |
DF DFV2 | Noavg 96¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$26.55 | 91% 198-19 (217) |
OE oegdatam | Noavg 96.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$19.24 | 87% 150-22 (172) |
 solwizzo-onX<$100 | Noavg 79.6¢ | $47.36 | $61.75 | +$14.39 | 67% 350-174 (524) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $20.44 | $20.73 | +$0.29 | 46% 6090-7031 (13121) |
TE technician2CTR | Yesavg 31.3¢ | $136.62 | $7.64 | -$128.98 | 53% 454-403 (857) |
Invested
$7,620.44
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$263.17
Record
46%
466-545 (1011)
Invested
$1,198.33
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$26.55
Record
91%
198-19 (217)
Invested
$1,099.16
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$19.24
Record
87%
150-22 (172)
solwizzo-onX<$100Invested
$47.36
Value
$61.75
PnL
+$14.39
Record
67%
350-174 (524)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$20.44
Value
$20.73
PnL
+$0.29
Record
46%
6090-7031 (13121)
Invested
$136.62
Value
$7.64
PnL
-$128.98
Record
53%
454-403 (857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.