Will Solana reach $260 by December 31, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$4.8K
$29.92
95.6¢ → 96.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
701h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | +$23.2 | 46% 466-545 (1011) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 96¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$6.73 | 55% 803-666 (1469) |
OE oegdatam | Noavg 95.1¢ | $699.22 | $675.45 | +$10.49 | 87% 150-22 (172) |
PH phdcapital<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $76.79 | $79.77 | +$2.89 | 94% 260-17 (277) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $9.57 | $20.58 | +$0.07 | 46% 6106-7046 (13152) |
Invested
$2,267.69
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$23.2
Record
46%
466-545 (1011)
Invested
$1,856.64
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$6.73
Record
55%
803-666 (1469)
Invested
$699.22
Value
$675.45
PnL
+$10.49
Record
87%
150-22 (172)
Invested
$76.79
Value
$79.77
PnL
+$2.89
Record
94%
260-17 (277)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$9.57
Value
$20.58
PnL
+$0.07
Record
46%
6106-7046 (13152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.