Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Slovan Bratislava win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $58 held · ends Jun 20, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Jun 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$57.69

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

1.3¢ → 0.1¢

-96% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$57.69

Total Shares115,388

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Gucky-45CTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$731.7	$30	-$701.7	32% 651-1414 (2065)
DG DG-NOCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$571.95	$23.45	-$548.5	44% 650-818 (1468)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$150	$3.15	-$146.85	19% 49-212 (261)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$14.54	$0.6	-$13.94	38% 495-815 (1310)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yes	$0.28	$0.28	+$0.28	79% 10607-2754 (13361)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$9.51	$0.21	-$9.3	38% 2933-4687 (7620)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.12	$0	-$0.12	46% 6106-7046 (13152)

Gucky-45CTR

Yes

Invested

$731.7

Value

$30

PnL

-$701.7

Record

32%

651-1414 (2065)

DG-NOCTR

Yes

Invested

$571.95

Value

$23.45

PnL

-$548.5

Record

44%

650-818 (1468)

forgotmydinnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$146.85

Record

19%

49-212 (261)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.54

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$13.94

Record

38%

495-815 (1310)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.28

Record

79%

10607-2754 (13361)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.51

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$9.3

Record

38%

2933-4687 (7620)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

PnL

-$0.12

Record

46%

6106-7046 (13152)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.