Will Slovakia win 2026-27 Nations League Group C3?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 2

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Wed, Dec 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$147.4

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 99.1¢

+43% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,829

Combined PnL+$164.03

No3 traders

Total Value$2.88

Total Shares85

Combined PnL-$16.63

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1	Yes	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$51.75	65% 949-501 (1450)
extractive-manatee	Yesavg 47.8¢	$143.86	$149.34	+$113.47	33% 541-1086 (1627)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 99.2¢	$281.69	$89.03	-$1.13	41% 6281-9214 (15495)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 99.2¢	$16.87	$16.81	-$0.06	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$12.8	$1.36	-$11.44	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$6.25	$1.33	-$4.92	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$0.46	$0.19	-$0.26	49% 8853-9361 (18214)

ndb1

Yes

Invested

$2,542.96

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$51.75

Record

65%

949-501 (1450)

extractive-manatee

Yes

Invested

$143.86

Value

$149.34

PnL

+$113.47

Record

33%

541-1086 (1627)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$281.69

Value

$89.03

PnL

-$1.13

Record

41%

6281-9214 (15495)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.87

Value

$16.81

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$12.8

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$11.44

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$6.25

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$4.92

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.26

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.