Will Slayyyter win Best New Artist at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $396 held · ends Feb 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$396.1
$24.91
87.9¢ → 94.8¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 87.7¢ | $201.63 | $216.43 | +$14.8 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
GO god83743894 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $94.77 | $101.45 | +$6.68 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 87.5¢ | $38.43 | $41.31 | +$2.88 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
AU auros2<$100 | Noavg 87.1¢ | $20.2 | $20.77 | +$0.57 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $14.64 | $14.74 | +$0.09 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $1.52 | $1.4 | -$0.12 | 39% 1053-1631 (2684) |
balthazarInvested
$201.63
Value
$216.43
PnL
+$14.8
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$94.77
Value
$101.45
PnL
+$6.68
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$38.43
Value
$41.31
PnL
+$2.88
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$20.77
PnL
+$0.57
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
Invested
$14.64
Value
$14.74
PnL
+$0.09
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$1.52
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$0.12
Record
39%
1053-1631 (2684)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.