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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $167 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$166.61
-$0.51
99.9¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $44.95 | $44.8 | -$0.16 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $43.83 | $43.69 | -$0.14 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $36.72 | $36.62 | -$0.09 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $25.99 | $25.9 | -$0.09 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $15.63 | $15.59 | -$0.04 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
Invested
$44.95
Value
$44.8
PnL
-$0.16
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$43.83
Value
$43.69
PnL
-$0.14
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$36.72
Value
$36.62
PnL
-$0.09
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$25.99
Value
$25.9
PnL
-$0.09
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$15.63
Value
$15.59
PnL
-$0.04
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.