Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Simeon Barclay win the Turner Prize 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 32¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$545.17

Smart Money Entry

13.9¢ → 32¢

+130% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$460.76

Total Shares1,646

Combined PnL+$214.5

No3 traders

Total Value$211.37

Total Shares314

Combined PnL+$330.67

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

115h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 79.1¢	$894.85	$326.81	-$39.88	13% 550-3635 (4185)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.1¢	$272.09	$230.48	-$192.89
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.4¢	$80.62	$96.32	+$153.01
0xdc3E831cadCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$26.56	$247.29	+$192.09	49% 1883-1990 (3873)
Rex416CTR	Yesavg 31.5¢	$189	$168	-$12	57% 2620-2003 (4623)
Haradwaith	Noavg 79¢	$109.72	$93.05	-$16.67	40% 6571-9852 (16423)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 66.3¢	$1.7K	$68	+$327.77	55% 18-15 (33)
2B9SARB<$100	Noavg 69.8¢	$168.23	$61.06	+$11.44	17% 4506-22060 (26566)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.8¢	$41.27	$39.59	-$23.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.8¢	$17.5	$21.47	+$34.94
WA WarriorH	Noavg 80¢	$158.18	$50.32	+$19.57	17% 1362-6594 (7956)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$11.05	$45.46	+$34.41	47% 1359-1503 (2862)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$894.85

Value

$326.81

PnL

-$39.88

Record

13%

550-3635 (4185)

Both legs:

No$272.0979.1¢-$192.89

Yes$80.6223.4¢+$153.01

0xdc3E831cadCTR

Yes

Invested

$26.56

Value

$247.29

PnL

+$192.09

Record

49%

1883-1990 (3873)

Rex416CTR

Yes

Invested

$189

Value

$168

PnL

-$12

Record

57%

2620-2003 (4623)

Haradwaith

Invested

$109.72

Value

$93.05

PnL

-$16.67

Record

40%

6571-9852 (16423)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$1,668.21

Value

$68

PnL

+$327.77

Record

55%

18-15 (33)

2B9SARB<$100

Invested

$168.23

Value

$61.06

PnL

+$11.44

Record

17%

4506-22060 (26566)

Both legs:

No$41.2769.8¢-$23.5

Yes$17.522.8¢+$34.94

WarriorH

Invested

$158.18

Value

$50.32

PnL

+$19.57

Record

17%

1362-6594 (7956)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.05

Value

$45.46

PnL

+$34.41

Record

47%

1359-1503 (2862)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

115h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.