Will Shedeur Sanders's next team be the Tennessee Titans?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $147 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$146.69
-$0.02
99.7¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $65.75 | $65.75 | +$0 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.92 | $29.91 | -$0.01 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.91 | +$0 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.97 | -$0.02 | 79% 170-44 (214) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $6.1 | $6.1 | +$0 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.99 | -$0.01 | 25% 1195-3512 (4707) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.04 | $0.06 | +$0.02 | 16% 10-54 (64) |
Invested
$65.75
Value
$65.75
PnL
+$0
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
Invested
$29.92
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$0.01
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.97
PnL
-$0.02
Record
79%
170-44 (214)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$6.1
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.99
PnL
-$0.01
Record
25%
1195-3512 (4707)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.06
PnL
+$0.02
Record
16%
10-54 (64)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.