Will Shedeur Sanders's next team be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $146 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$145.9
-$0.04
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $64.91 | $64.9 | -$0 | 11% 35-271 (306) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $36.08 | $36.07 | -$0.02 | 5% 16-322 (338) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 28% 827-2133 (2960) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.99 | -$0 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.99 | -$0 | 25% 1201-3514 (4715) |
Invested
$64.91
Value
$64.9
PnL
-$0
Record
11%
35-271 (306)
Invested
$36.08
Value
$36.07
PnL
-$0.02
Record
5%
16-322 (338)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
28%
827-2133 (2960)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.99
PnL
-$0
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.99
PnL
-$0
Record
25%
1201-3514 (4715)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.