Will Shedeur Sanders's next team be the Pittsburgh Steelers?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $144 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$144.32
-$2.28
99.6¢ → 97.7¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $65.69 | $64.53 | -$1.15 | 14% 43-271 (314) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.88 | $29.36 | -$0.52 | 25% 816-2478 (3294) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.89 | $29.36 | -$0.54 | 39% 1401-2153 (3554) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.79 | -$0.21 | 79% 192-51 (243) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $6.1 | $5.99 | -$0.11 | 12% 32-237 (269) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.89 | -$0.1 | 25% 1201-3514 (4715) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.06 | $0.41 | +$0.36 | 15% 13-72 (85) |
Invested
$65.69
Value
$64.53
PnL
-$1.15
Record
14%
43-271 (314)
Invested
$29.88
Value
$29.36
PnL
-$0.52
Record
25%
816-2478 (3294)
Invested
$29.89
Value
$29.36
PnL
-$0.54
Record
39%
1401-2153 (3554)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.79
PnL
-$0.21
Record
79%
192-51 (243)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$5.99
PnL
-$0.11
Record
12%
32-237 (269)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.89
PnL
-$0.1
Record
25%
1201-3514 (4715)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.41
PnL
+$0.36
Record
15%
13-72 (85)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.