Will Shedeur Sanders's next team be the Philadelphia Eagles?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $160 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$160.01
-$0.69
99.6¢ → 99.2¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $44.93 | $44.55 | -$0.38 | 21% 75-278 (353) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $39.6 | $39.6 | +$0 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $36.08 | $35.76 | -$0.33 | 29% 866-2137 (3003) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.89 | $29.7 | -$0.19 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $4.95 | +$0 | 53% 5552-4936 (10488) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.95 | -$0.04 | 26% 1209-3518 (4727) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.25 | $0.5 | +$0.25 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
Invested
$44.93
Value
$44.55
PnL
-$0.38
Record
21%
75-278 (353)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.6
Value
$39.6
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
Invested
$36.08
Value
$35.76
PnL
-$0.33
Record
29%
866-2137 (3003)
Invested
$29.89
Value
$29.7
PnL
-$0.19
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5552-4936 (10488)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.04
Record
26%
1209-3518 (4727)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.5
PnL
+$0.25
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.