Will Shedeur Sanders's next team be the New York Giants?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 91¢ · $135 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$134.92
-$11.79
99.7¢ → 90.5¢
-9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $65.75 | $59.68 | -$6.07 | 11% 35-271 (306) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.92 | $27.15 | -$2.77 | 5% 16-322 (338) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $27.15 | -$2.76 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.05 | -$0.94 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $6.1 | $5.54 | -$0.56 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.53 | -$0.47 | 25% 1201-3514 (4715) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.04 | $1.82 | +$1.79 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
Invested
$65.75
Value
$59.68
PnL
-$6.07
Record
11%
35-271 (306)
Invested
$29.92
Value
$27.15
PnL
-$2.77
Record
5%
16-322 (338)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$27.15
PnL
-$2.76
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.05
PnL
-$0.94
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$5.54
PnL
-$0.56
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.53
PnL
-$0.47
Record
25%
1201-3514 (4715)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.04
Value
$1.82
PnL
+$1.79
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.