Will Shedeur Sanders's next team be the Cleveland Browns?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 90¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$1.2K
$10.69
Research grade
NeutralYes at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CosmicCedar | Yesavg 91¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$7.83 | 0% 0-88 (88) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 5¢ | $6.6 | $12.94 | +$6.34 | 11% 35-271 (306) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.4¢ | $0.34 | $8.82 | +$8.48 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.4¢ | $0.1 | $2.55 | +$2.44 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.2¢ | $0.12 | $0.98 | +$0.86 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.9¢ | $0.1 | $0.49 | +$0.4 | 25% 1201-3514 (4715) |
CosmicCedarInvested
$1,155.43
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$7.83
Record
0%
0-88 (88)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$12.94
PnL
+$6.34
Record
11%
35-271 (306)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.34
Value
$8.82
PnL
+$8.48
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.1
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$2.44
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.98
PnL
+$0.86
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.49
PnL
+$0.4
Record
25%
1201-3514 (4715)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.