Will Shedeur Sanders's next team be the Carolina Panthers?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $147 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$147.02
$0.21
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $101.87 | $102.02 | +$0.15 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.99 | +$0.05 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $10 | +$0.01 | 79% 159-42 (201) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 25% 1195-3512 (4707) |
 CosmicCedarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.02 | +$0 | 0% 0-88 (88) |
Invested
$101.87
Value
$102.02
PnL
+$0.15
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.05
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.01
Record
79%
159-42 (201)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
1195-3512 (4707)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0
Record
0%
0-88 (88)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.