Will Shedeur Sanders's next team be the Buffalo Bills?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $217 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$216.91
-$0.49
99.7¢ → 99.1¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $131.58 | $131.08 | -$0.5 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $70.57 | $70.27 | -$0.3 | 50% 4483-4431 (8914) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.93 | -$0.06 | 80% 146-37 (183) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.96 | -$0.03 | 25% 1194-3512 (4706) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.27 | $0.67 | +$0.4 | 16% 10-51 (61) |
Invested
$131.58
Value
$131.08
PnL
-$0.5
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
balthazar<$100Invested
$70.57
Value
$70.27
PnL
-$0.3
Record
50%
4483-4431 (8914)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.93
PnL
-$0.06
Record
80%
146-37 (183)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.96
PnL
-$0.03
Record
25%
1194-3512 (4706)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.67
PnL
+$0.4
Record
16%
10-51 (61)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.