Will Shedeur Sanders's next team be the Baltimore Ravens?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $143 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$143.39
-$3.4
99.8¢ → 97.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $95.76 | $93.55 | -$2.21 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.25 | -$0.69 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.75 | -$0.24 | 79% 158-41 (199) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $6.11 | $5.97 | -$0.14 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.88 | -$0.12 | 25% 1195-3512 (4707) |
Invested
$95.76
Value
$93.55
PnL
-$2.21
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.25
PnL
-$0.69
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.75
PnL
-$0.24
Record
79%
158-41 (199)
Invested
$6.11
Value
$5.97
PnL
-$0.14
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.88
PnL
-$0.12
Record
25%
1195-3512 (4707)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.