Will Shas win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.1K
$13.93
97.1¢ → 97.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
404h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 97.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$9.74 | 74% 2701-970 (3671) |
ME melonmanm<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $94.3 | $97.5 | +$3.3 | 65% 483-260 (743) |
 archaic<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $24.11 | $25.23 | +$1.13 | 85% 1873-338 (2211) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $8.58 | $8.69 | +$0.11 | 60% 3232-2166 (5398) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $6.06 | $6 | +$19.14 | 18% 3780-17066 (20846) |
viniiInvested
$1,020.03
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$9.74
Record
74%
2701-970 (3671)
Invested
$94.3
Value
$97.5
PnL
+$3.3
Record
65%
483-260 (743)
archaic<$100Invested
$24.11
Value
$25.23
PnL
+$1.13
Record
85%
1873-338 (2211)
Invested
$8.58
Value
$8.69
PnL
+$0.11
Record
60%
3232-2166 (5398)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$6.06
Value
$6
PnL
+$19.14
Record
18%
3780-17066 (20846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.