Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 85¢ · $574 held · ends Oct 25, 2027

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Mon, Oct 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$573.74

Combined PnL

$85.93

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$443.98

Total Shares523

Combined PnL-$15.69

Yes3 traders

Total Value$129.75

Total Shares862

Combined PnL+$101.62

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lissartter	Noavg 88¢	$459.67	$443.98	-$15.69	42% 5279-7229 (12508)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$17.45	$59.28	+$40.78	36% 2079-3718 (5797)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$0.93	$41.13	+$36.86	56% 14220-11020 (25240)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$5.37	$29.35	+$23.98	52% 2049-1868 (3917)

lissartter

Invested

$459.67

Value

$443.98

PnL

-$15.69

Record

42%

5279-7229 (12508)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.45

Value

$59.28

PnL

+$40.78

Record

36%

2079-3718 (5797)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$41.13

PnL

+$36.86

Record

56%

14220-11020 (25240)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.37

Value

$29.35

PnL

+$23.98

Record

52%

2049-1868 (3917)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.4%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.