Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Sergio De Larrea win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $16 held · ends May 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, May 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$16.42

Combined PnL

-$1.93

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$16.42

Total Shares7,601

Combined PnL-$1.93

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

215h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$5.16	$10.31	+$10.31	41% 1295-1880 (3175)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$2.62	$2.68	+$0.06	21% 2284-8696 (10980)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$10.23	$2.31	-$7.92	42% 565-794 (1359)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$4.78	$0.97	-$3.81	25% 181-537 (718)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.73	$0.15	-$0.58	23% 177-601 (778)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.16

Value

$10.31

PnL

+$10.31

Record

41%

1295-1880 (3175)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.62

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.06

Record

21%

2284-8696 (10980)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.23

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$7.92

Record

42%

565-794 (1359)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.78

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$3.81

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.58

Record

23%

177-601 (778)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

215h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.