Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Serghei Spivac be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$4.91
-$124.04
5.2¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DumplingBMF<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $2.78 | $3.7 | +$0.92 | 68% 1836-852 (2688) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $55.5 | $0.54 | -$54.96 | 63% 12918-7608 (20526) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $29.83 | $0.28 | -$29.54 | 92% 8456-738 (9194) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $22.55 | $0.21 | -$22.34 | 60% 7176-4688 (11864) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $19.91 | $0.09 | -$10.33 | 55% 6018-4905 (10923) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $7.86 | $0.07 | -$7.79 | 30% 350-813 (1163) |
DumplingBMF<$100Invested
$2.78
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$0.92
Record
68%
1836-852 (2688)
Invested
$55.5
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$54.96
Record
63%
12918-7608 (20526)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$29.83
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$29.54
Record
92%
8456-738 (9194)
Invested
$22.55
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$22.34
Record
60%
7176-4688 (11864)
Invested
$19.91
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$10.33
Record
55%
6018-4905 (10923)
Invested
$7.86
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$7.79
Record
30%
350-813 (1163)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.