Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Sergei Pavlovich be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.46

Combined PnL

-$48.64

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$0.46

Total Shares911

Combined PnL-$48.64

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yes	$0.19	$0.19	-$19.86	46% 9438-11159 (20597)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.07	$0.07	-$7.79	30% 503-1182 (1685)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$5.55	$0.05	-$5.5	26% 7359-21131 (28490)
VI VictorLudorumCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$108.86	$0.05	-$10.27	49% 6588-6939 (13527)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1.37	$0.04	-$1.33	32% 3290-7152 (10442)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$0.03	-$3.08	18% 245-1134 (1379)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.18	— 6-1 (7)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.01	-$0.63	31% 520-1171 (1691)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.04	$0.01	+$0.01	33% 7014-13992 (21006)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0	-$0.01	17% 4506-22060 (26566)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$19.86

Record

46%

9438-11159 (20597)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$7.79

Record

30%

503-1182 (1685)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.55

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$5.5

Record

26%

7359-21131 (28490)

VictorLudorumCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.86

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$10.27

Record

49%

6588-6939 (13527)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.37

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.33

Record

32%

3290-7152 (10442)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$3.08

Record

18%

245-1134 (1379)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.18

Record

—

6-1 (7)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.63

Record

31%

520-1171 (1691)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

33%

7014-13992 (21006)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

PnL

-$0.01

Record

17%

4506-22060 (26566)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.