Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$6.5K
-$1.44
97¢ → 96.4¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 97¢ | $5.9K | $5.9K | -$32.78 | 45% 2761-3311 (6072) |
PO pollo07 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $263.66 | $263.92 | +$0.26 | 32% 324-696 (1020) |
KL klli27 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $195.23 | $195.28 | +$0.04 | 31% 307-668 (975) |
QM QMG-CORECTR | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $170.86 | $180 | +$9.14 | 77% 1392-412 (1804) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $674.07 | $38.66 | +$21.9 | 18% 525-2348 (2873) |
Invested
$5,900.3
Value
$5.9K
PnL
-$32.78
Record
45%
2761-3311 (6072)
Invested
$263.66
Value
$263.92
PnL
+$0.26
Record
32%
324-696 (1020)
Invested
$195.23
Value
$195.28
PnL
+$0.04
Record
31%
307-668 (975)
Invested
$170.86
Value
$180
PnL
+$9.14
Record
77%
1392-412 (1804)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$674.07
Value
$38.66
PnL
+$21.9
Record
18%
525-2348 (2873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.