Will Sean O'Malley be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.0K
-$24.72
95.8¢ → 97.2¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-27 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
650h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
12 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Slowroasted | Noavg 96.9¢ | $911.01 | $914.01 | +$3 | 88% 1989-279 (2268) |
 4751346<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $55.64 | $67.04 | +$10.13 | 72% 1239-480 (1719) |
 siickCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $61.59 | $13.27 | -$43.83 | 57% 762-577 (1339) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $1.19 | $6.76 | +$5.57 | 41% 1279-1824 (3103) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $0.18 | $0.28 | +$0.41 | 33% 6261-12978 (19239) |
SlowroastedInvested
$911.01
Value
$914.01
PnL
+$3
Record
88%
1989-279 (2268)
4751346<$100Invested
$55.64
Value
$67.04
PnL
+$10.13
Record
72%
1239-480 (1719)
siickCTR<$100Invested
$61.59
Value
$13.27
PnL
-$43.83
Record
57%
762-577 (1339)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$6.76
PnL
+$5.57
Record
41%
1279-1824 (3103)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.28
PnL
+$0.41
Record
33%
6261-12978 (19239)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.