Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.59

Combined PnL

-$3.61

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$0.59

Total Shares1,185

Combined PnL-$3.61

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

79h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yes	$0.26	$0.26	+$0.26	58% 16803-12129 (28932)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.31	$0.15	-$0.16	26% 7288-21060 (28348)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yes	$0.08	$0.08	+$0	39% 5747-9157 (14904)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$0.33	43% 8735-11393 (20128)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.08	$0.02	-$1.67	16% 373-1948 (2321)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.01	-$0.84	35% 572-1071 (1643)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.33	$0.01	-$0.32	31% 3237-7104 (10341)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.12	$0.01	-$0.11	72% 13767-5236 (19003)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.01	-$0.38	37% 4012-6767 (10779)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.07	$0	-$0.07	19% 2852-12176 (15028)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.26

PnL

+$0.26

Record

58%

16803-12129 (28932)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.16

Record

26%

7288-21060 (28348)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

5747-9157 (14904)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.33

Record

43%

8735-11393 (20128)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.67

Record

16%

373-1948 (2321)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.84

Record

35%

572-1071 (1643)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.32

Record

31%

3237-7104 (10341)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.11

Record

72%

13767-5236 (19003)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.38

Record

37%

4012-6767 (10779)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

PnL

-$0.07

Record

19%

2852-12176 (15028)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

79h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.