Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 20 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

20 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $4 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$3.94

Combined PnL

-$194.96

Smart Money Entry

2.2¢ → 0.1¢

-98% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 20 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes20 traders

Total Value$3.94

Total Shares7,871

Combined PnL-$194.96

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

74h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$60.12	$0.75	-$59.37	38% 1217-2001 (3218)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$30.97	$0.68	-$30.29	72% 13903-5480 (19383)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$44.74	$0.61	-$44.13	31% 3266-7124 (10390)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$1.44	$0.28	-$1.17	39% 317-502 (819)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.75	$0.27	-$0.47	27% 2536-6889 (9425)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.21	$0.17	-$0.04	27% 598-1657 (2255)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$0.16	$0.16	-$12.62	47% 10368-11827 (22195)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.43	$0.16	-$12.52	21% 365-1344 (1709)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.48	$0.15	-$0.32	42% 886-1203 (2089)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$8.43	$0.14	-$7.9	30% 472-1116 (1588)
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.49	$0.12	-$0.37	35% 1836-3406 (5242)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$6.8	$0.09	-$6.83	28% 2849-7321 (10170)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.39	$0.09	-$7.24	37% 4048-6779 (10827)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.13	$0.05	-$0.03	54% 12531-10868 (23399)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$1.57	$0.05	-$1.53	40% 6547-9828 (16375)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$2.76	$0.05	-$2.71	34% 3335-6352 (9687)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$3.06	16% 387-1970 (2357)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.05	$0.03	-$1.98	17% 1350-6561 (7911)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.19	$0.03	-$1.98	49% 6577-6937 (13514)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.42	$0.02	-$0.4	23% 1798-6043 (7841)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.12

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$59.37

Record

38%

1217-2001 (3218)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.97

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$30.29

Record

72%

13903-5480 (19383)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.74

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$44.13

Record

31%

3266-7124 (10390)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$1.17

Record

39%

317-502 (819)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.47

Record

27%

2536-6889 (9425)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.04

Record

27%

598-1657 (2255)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$12.62

Record

47%

10368-11827 (22195)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$12.52

Record

21%

365-1344 (1709)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.32

Record

42%

886-1203 (2089)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.43

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$7.9

Record

30%

472-1116 (1588)

PiEDawgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.37

Record

35%

1836-3406 (5242)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.8

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$6.83

Record

28%

2849-7321 (10170)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$7.24

Record

37%

4048-6779 (10827)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

12531-10868 (23399)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.57

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.53

Record

40%

6547-9828 (16375)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.76

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.71

Record

34%

3335-6352 (9687)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.06

Record

16%

387-1970 (2357)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.98

Record

17%

1350-6561 (7911)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.98

Record

49%

6577-6937 (13514)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.4

Record

23%

1798-6043 (7841)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 20 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

74h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.