Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Sarah Jane Nader win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$0.04
-$1.6
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $0.4 | $0.01 | -$0.39 | 28% 329-852 (1181) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $0.4 | $0.01 | -$0.39 | 30% 369-870 (1239) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $0.4 | $0.01 | -$0.39 | 27% 238-656 (894) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $0.4 | $0.01 | -$0.39 | 27% 218-592 (810) |
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $0.03 | $0 | -$0.03 | 47% 5119-5827 (10946) |
Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.39
Record
28%
329-852 (1181)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.39
Record
30%
369-870 (1239)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.39
Record
27%
238-656 (894)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.39
Record
27%
218-592 (810)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
5119-5827 (10946)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.