Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2026 NFC West?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 18, 2027

Yes75¢No25¢Ends Mon, Jan 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

39.8¢ → 75¢

+89% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,739

Combined PnL+$1.3K

No1 trader

Total Value$10.25

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$12.01

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

574h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anciano	Yesavg 24.8¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$732.51	54% 1381-1191 (2572)
0X 0x53eCc53E7	Yesavg 52.9¢	$607.51	$872.13	+$264.63	43% 483-632 (1115)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 71.8¢	$337.19	$332.14	+$35.97	45% 2879-3530 (6409)
TimeTraveler	Yesavg 41.5¢	$244.84	$186.08	+$84.41	41% 2069-2964 (5033)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 21¢	$48.48	$175.7	+$127.22	50% 2472-2433 (4905)
DO donthackme<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$3.03	$11.51	+$8.48	73% 12955-4895 (17850)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$22.26	$10.25	-$12.01	31% 3537-7927 (11464)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$3.05	$6.92	+$3.88	77% 12489-3829 (16318)

anciano

Yes

Invested

$1,000.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$732.51

Record

54%

1381-1191 (2572)

0x53eCc53E7

Yes

Invested

$607.51

Value

$872.13

PnL

+$264.63

Record

43%

483-632 (1115)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$337.19

Value

$332.14

PnL

+$35.97

Record

45%

2879-3530 (6409)

TimeTraveler

Yes

Invested

$244.84

Value

$186.08

PnL

+$84.41

Record

41%

2069-2964 (5033)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$48.48

Value

$175.7

PnL

+$127.22

Record

50%

2472-2433 (4905)

donthackme<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.03

Value

$11.51

PnL

+$8.48

Record

73%

12955-4895 (17850)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Invested

$22.26

Value

$10.25

PnL

-$12.01

Record

31%

3537-7927 (11464)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.05

Value

$6.92

PnL

+$3.88

Record

77%

12489-3829 (16318)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

574h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.