Will Samuel Alito be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $67 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$66.81
-$0.02
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $22.23 | $22.23 | -$0 | 44% 1079-1378 (2457) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.98 | $20.96 | -$0.02 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.29 | $13.29 | +$0 | 38% 253-414 (667) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.27 | $9.27 | -$0 | 38% 575-934 (1509) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $1.07 | $1.07 | -$0 | 36% 262-468 (730) |
Invested
$22.23
Value
$22.23
PnL
-$0
Record
44%
1079-1378 (2457)
Invested
$20.98
Value
$20.96
PnL
-$0.02
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
Invested
$13.29
Value
$13.29
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
253-414 (667)
Invested
$9.27
Value
$9.27
PnL
-$0
Record
38%
575-934 (1509)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$1.07
PnL
-$0
Record
36%
262-468 (730)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.