Will Saint Louis win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 89¢ · $520 held · ends Apr 20, 2027

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Tue, Apr 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$519.55

Combined PnL

$47.03

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$462.97

Total Shares519

Combined PnL+$46.85

Yes3 traders

Total Value$56.59

Total Shares524

Combined PnL+$0.18

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1	Noavg 90.7¢	$416.12	$462.97	+$46.85	64% 1050-593 (1643)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$5.68	$54	+$1.67	39% 2903-4500 (7403)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$1.66	$2.16	-$1.51	23% 1795-6040 (7835)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.43	$0.43	+$0.02	43% 8771-11417 (20188)

ndb1

Invested

$416.12

Value

$462.97

PnL

+$46.85

Record

64%

1050-593 (1643)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.68

Value

$54

PnL

+$1.67

Record

39%

2903-4500 (7403)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.66

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$1.51

Record

23%

1795-6040 (7835)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$0.02

Record

43%

8771-11417 (20188)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.6%

89.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.