Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $95 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$94.82

Combined PnL

-$62.19

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$90.65

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$3.44

Yes8 traders

Total Value$4.17

Total Shares8,336

Combined PnL-$58.75

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$49.59	$48.79	-$0.8	77% 12684-3870 (16554)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.99	+$0.05	31% 4457-9735 (14192)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$10.02	$6.88	-$2.69	17% 4495-21985 (26480)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	+$0	58% 21162-15379 (36541)
EA EatprayloveCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$37.83	$2.72	-$36.63	56% 805-631 (1436)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$4.1	$0.6	-$9.32	17% 104-504 (608)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$6.34	$0.38	-$5.95	6% 14-232 (246)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.01	$0.24	-$3.68	54% 12407-10640 (23047)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.17	$0.17	-$2.52	43% 8738-11397 (20135)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.28	$0.03	-$0.24	39% 681-1086 (1767)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.43	$0.03	-$0.4	31% 3239-7107 (10346)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0	+$0	19% 2858-12194 (15052)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$49.59

Value

$48.79

PnL

-$0.8

Record

77%

12684-3870 (16554)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

31%

4457-9735 (14192)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$10.02

Value

$6.88

PnL

-$2.69

Record

17%

4495-21985 (26480)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

21162-15379 (36541)

EatprayloveCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.83

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$36.63

Record

56%

805-631 (1436)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.1

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$9.32

Record

17%

104-504 (608)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.34

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$5.95

Record

14-232 (246)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$3.68

Record

54%

12407-10640 (23047)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$2.52

Record

43%

8738-11397 (20135)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.24

Record

39%

681-1086 (1767)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.4

Record

31%

3239-7107 (10346)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

2858-12194 (15052)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9423.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

9523.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.