Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $38 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 82%

Total Value

$38.41

Combined PnL

-$63.83

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$33.5

Total Shares33

Combined PnL-$0.79

Yes9 traders

Total Value$4.92

Total Shares9,831

Combined PnL-$63.05

No — 18%Yes — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

86h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.99	$29.99	+$0.01	31% 4467-9741 (14208)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$25.23	$3.51	-$0.79	77% 12697-3875 (16572)
EA EatprayloveCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$37.83	$2.72	-$36.63	56% 808-631 (1439)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$4.1	$0.7	-$10.87	17% 106-504 (610)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$7.45	$0.45	-$7	6% 14-233 (247)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.87	$0.44	-$1.43	17% 4496-22008 (26504)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.01	$0.24	-$3.68	54% 12474-10723 (23197)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.17	$0.17	-$2.52	43% 8757-11401 (20158)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.41	$0.15	-$0.26	56% 18822-14981 (33803)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.28	$0.03	-$0.24	39% 681-1087 (1768)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.43	$0.03	-$0.4	31% 3256-7119 (10375)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$29.99

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

31%

4467-9741 (14208)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$25.23

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.79

Record

77%

12697-3875 (16572)

EatprayloveCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.83

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$36.63

Record

56%

808-631 (1439)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.1

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$10.87

Record

17%

106-504 (610)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.45

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$7

Record

14-233 (247)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.87

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$1.43

Record

17%

4496-22008 (26504)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$3.68

Record

54%

12474-10723 (23197)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$2.52

Record

43%

8757-11401 (20158)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.26

Record

56%

18822-14981 (33803)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.24

Record

39%

681-1087 (1768)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.4

Record

31%

3256-7119 (10375)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

86h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9423.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

9523.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.