Will Ryusuke Hamaguchi win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $276 held · ends Mar 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$275.56
-$0.97
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $103.38 | $103.01 | -$0.36 | 28% 826-2133 (2959) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $48.15 | $47.98 | -$0.17 | 35% 2886-5323 (8209) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $44.96 | $44.8 | -$0.16 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $35.03 | $34.91 | -$0.12 | — 0-13 (13) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.87 | -$0.1 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.04 | $14.99 | -$0.05 | 28% 2424-6147 (8571) |
Invested
$103.38
Value
$103.01
PnL
-$0.36
Record
28%
826-2133 (2959)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$48.15
Value
$47.98
PnL
-$0.17
Record
35%
2886-5323 (8209)
Invested
$44.96
Value
$44.8
PnL
-$0.16
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$35.03
Value
$34.91
PnL
-$0.12
Record
—
0-13 (13)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.87
PnL
-$0.1
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$15.04
Value
$14.99
PnL
-$0.05
Record
28%
2424-6147 (8571)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.