Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 78¢ · $543 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$543.17
-$75.75
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | Noavg 75¢ | $403.41 | $416.86 | +$13.45 | 40% 306-460 (766) |
 RememberAmalekCTR | Yesavg 49.6¢ | $114.39 | $50.75 | -$62.49 | 56% 955-754 (1709) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $72 | $44 | -$27 | 57% 1101-821 (1922) |
 archaicCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.8¢ | $28.67 | $29.98 | +$1.31 | 85% 1862-338 (2200) |
BA balerinacapuchinaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $2.6 | $1.58 | -$1.02 | 73% 176-66 (242) |
Invested
$403.41
Value
$416.86
PnL
+$13.45
Record
40%
306-460 (766)
RememberAmalekCTRInvested
$114.39
Value
$50.75
PnL
-$62.49
Record
56%
955-754 (1709)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$72
Value
$44
PnL
-$27
Record
57%
1101-821 (1922)
archaicCTR<$100Invested
$28.67
Value
$29.98
PnL
+$1.31
Record
85%
1862-338 (2200)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$1.02
Record
73%
176-66 (242)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.