Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.7K
$31.87
95.6¢ → 98.4¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
3286h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 OraculumNobius | Noavg 97.6¢ | $976.89 | $968.98 | +$4.09 | 90% 5464-611 (6075) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $524.56 | $549.11 | +$31.07 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 BloodyMummer | Noavg 94.2¢ | $169.85 | $174.72 | +$8.47 | 77% 557-164 (721) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $16.89 | $10.02 | -$6.88 | 18% 519-2317 (2836) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $5.5 | $0.61 | -$4.89 | 57% 575-434 (1009) |
OraculumNobiusInvested
$976.89
Value
$968.98
PnL
+$4.09
Record
90%
5464-611 (6075)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$524.56
Value
$549.11
PnL
+$31.07
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
BloodyMummerInvested
$169.85
Value
$174.72
PnL
+$8.47
Record
77%
557-164 (721)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$16.89
Value
$10.02
PnL
-$6.88
Record
18%
519-2317 (2836)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$0.61
PnL
-$4.89
Record
57%
575-434 (1009)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.