Will Russia capture Svitle by December 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 99¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$6.3K
$181.67
94.5¢ → 99¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NiceDuckBro | Yesavg 98¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$33.92 | 65% 324-174 (498) |
 DumplingBMF | Yesavg 89.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.9K | +$187.04 | 68% 1816-845 (2661) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 93¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$30.98 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
GL Gladius7CTR<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $8.5 | $0.2 | -$8.3 | 49% 90-95 (185) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.