Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 37¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$2.8K
$321
35.5¢ → 37¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NiceDuckBroCTR | Noavg 32¢ | $959.46 | $1.2K | +$165.55 | 65% 323-174 (497) |
 DumplingBMF | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $821.2 | $1.1K | +$231.1 | 68% 1793-829 (2622) |
JO JoeBlack01CTR | Noavg 40¢ | $380 | $370.5 | -$23.75 | 60% 467-309 (776) |
 smellyEllieCTR | Noavg 48.4¢ | $230.32 | $185.55 | -$51.9 | 50% 935-946 (1881) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.