Will Ruler have the most kills at Worlds 2026?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 95¢ · $556 held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$555.63
$9.07
96¢ → 95.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Noavg 93.1¢ | $134.59 | $141.74 | +$7.14 | 51% 80-78 (158) |
KL klli27 | Noavg 98¢ | $137.1 | $133.53 | -$3.57 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $98.12 | $95.56 | -$2.55 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $55.66 | $58.79 | +$3.13 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $57.8 | $57.27 | -$0.53 | 53% 5552-4936 (10488) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $33.71 | $32.83 | -$0.88 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.6 | $19.09 | -$0.51 | 82% 41-9 (50) |
TA taemaxxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $7.09 | $16.13 | +$9.04 | — 2-1 (3) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $2.89 | $0.68 | -$2.21 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
Invested
$134.59
Value
$141.74
PnL
+$7.14
Record
51%
80-78 (158)
Invested
$137.1
Value
$133.53
PnL
-$3.57
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Invested
$98.12
Value
$95.56
PnL
-$2.55
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
balthazar<$100Invested
$55.66
Value
$58.79
PnL
+$3.13
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
Invested
$57.8
Value
$57.27
PnL
-$0.53
Record
53%
5552-4936 (10488)
Invested
$33.71
Value
$32.83
PnL
-$0.88
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.09
PnL
-$0.51
Record
82%
41-9 (50)
Invested
$7.09
Value
$16.13
PnL
+$9.04
Record
—
2-1 (3)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$2.89
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$2.21
Record
50%
23-23 (46)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.