Will Rockstar release GTA VI on PC in March 2027 (ET)?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 91¢ · $139 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
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Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$139.19
-$4.69
79.3¢ → 91.1¢
+15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 78.8¢ | $91.24 | $95.48 | +$4.24 | 19% 2880-12257 (15137) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $32.32 | $36.46 | +$0.46 | 53% 8568-7638 (16206) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.3¢ | $16.63 | $7.23 | -$9.4 | 17% 1328-6547 (7875) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.