Will Robinhood be first to list tokenized stocks in the US?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 67¢ · $386 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$386.41
-$29.06
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
515h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
10 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 69.3¢ | $151.5 | $150 | -$0.01 | 18% 365-1635 (2000) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69.3¢ | $103.96 | $101.25 | -$2.76 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30.6¢ | $45.91 | $48.75 | +$2.75 | |
 PMTraderAdam | Noavg 68¢ | $135.99 | $143.99 | +$7 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR | Yesavg 40.4¢ | $98.36 | $70.88 | -$27.48 | 40% 174-265 (439) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44.1¢ | $26.33 | $17.98 | -$8.35 | 56% 15371-11922 (27293) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $3.78 | $3.55 | -$0.23 | 74% 2792-1003 (3795) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$151.5
Value
$150
PnL
-$0.01
Record
18%
365-1635 (2000)
Both legs:
PMTraderAdamInvested
$135.99
Value
$143.99
PnL
+$7
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
Invested
$98.36
Value
$70.88
PnL
-$27.48
Record
40%
174-265 (439)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$26.33
Value
$17.98
PnL
-$8.35
Record
56%
15371-11922 (27293)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$3.78
Value
$3.55
PnL
-$0.23
Record
74%
2792-1003 (3795)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.