Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31, 2028

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Dec 31, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$129.61

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 96.3¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,831

Combined PnL+$131.41

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.25

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$1.8

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

821h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Filobestia	Noavg 88.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$126.5	91% 61-6 (67)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 94¢	$18.8	$73.2	+$1.48	53% 23476-20702 (44178)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 83.3¢	$33.32	$36.6	+$3.28	43% 10590-14068 (24658)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$27.37	$27.45	+$0.12	43% 8733-11387 (20120)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$4.55	$4.58	+$0.03	77% 12683-3868 (16551)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.1¢	$6.05	$4.25	-$1.8	19% 2852-12168 (15020)

Filobestia

Invested

$1,406.77

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$126.5

Record

91%

61-6 (67)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.8

Value

$73.2

PnL

+$1.48

Record

53%

23476-20702 (44178)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$33.32

Value

$36.6

PnL

+$3.28

Record

43%

10590-14068 (24658)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$27.37

Value

$27.45

PnL

+$0.12

Record

43%

8733-11387 (20120)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$0.03

Record

77%

12683-3868 (16551)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.05

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$1.8

Record

19%

2852-12168 (15020)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

821h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.