Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Robert Pattinson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.1¢ · $25 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$24.51

Combined PnL

-$43.46

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$24.51

Total Shares1,196

Combined PnL-$43.46

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

164h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$6.92	$8.09	+$1.16	— 0-3 (3)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$5.64	$5.09	-$0.55	— 4-3 (7)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$5.56	$5.01	-$0.54	—
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$345.72	$3.36	-$43.2	39% 179-277 (456)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1.89	$1.7	-$0.18	— 7-1 (8)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1.27	$1.15	-$0.12	— 8-2 (10)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0.12	$0.11	-$0.01	— 11-2 (13)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.92

Value

$8.09

PnL

+$1.16

Record

—

0-3 (3)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.64

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0.55

Record

—

4-3 (7)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.54

Record

—

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$345.72

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$43.2

Record

39%

179-277 (456)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.89

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.18

Record

—

7-1 (8)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.12

Record

—

8-2 (10)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

—

11-2 (13)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

164h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.2%

2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3027.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

3127.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.