Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $254 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$254.14

Combined PnL

-$0.37

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.3¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$253.49

Total Shares254

Combined PnL-$0.37

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.65

Total Shares323

Combined PnL+$0

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$76.52	$76.5	-$0.02	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.88	$59.88	+$0	26% 860-2483 (3343)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.88	$59.58	-$0.3	53% 5667-5092 (10759)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.98	$20.96	-$0.02	79% 380-101 (481)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$14.04	$14.04	+$0	45% 378-468 (846)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$13.29	$13.27	-$0.01	43% 387-516 (903)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.27	$9.26	-$0.01	48% 343-365 (708)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.65	$0.65	+$0	— 5-1 (6)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$76.52

Value

$76.5

PnL

-$0.02

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$59.88

Value

$59.88

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$59.88

Value

$59.58

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

5667-5092 (10759)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$20.98

Value

$20.96

PnL

-$0.02

Record

79%

380-101 (481)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$14.04

Value

$14.04

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

378-468 (846)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$13.29

Value

$13.27

PnL

-$0.01

Record

43%

387-516 (903)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$9.27

Value

$9.26

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

343-365 (708)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0

Record

—

5-1 (6)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.