Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 74¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$4.0K
$678.73
54.4¢ → 73.5¢
+35% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 74%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shovelingdigging | Yesavg 52.3¢ | $1.7K | $2.1K | +$433.54 | 60% 306-205 (511) |
 KimchiCapital | Yesavg 52.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$313.86 | 76% 508-161 (669) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 71.3¢ | $553.79 | $402.37 | -$74.68 | 36% 273-494 (767) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 47.9¢ | $114.74 | $120.76 | +$6.02 | 36% 14458-25898 (40356) |
Invested
$1,675.71
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$433.54
Record
60%
306-205 (511)
KimchiCapitalInvested
$1,032.32
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$313.86
Record
76%
508-161 (669)
IstarothInvested
$553.79
Value
$402.37
PnL
-$74.68
Record
36%
273-494 (767)
Invested
$114.74
Value
$120.76
PnL
+$6.02
Record
36%
14458-25898 (40356)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.