Will Rick Scott be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $230 held · ends Jan 3, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$229.68
$1.04
98¢ → 96.6¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 98.1¢ | $143.42 | $143.42 | -$0 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $29.43 | $29.43 | +$0 | 11% 35-271 (306) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $24.42 | $24.56 | +$0.15 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $24.53 | $24.53 | +$0 | 53% 1595-1413 (3008) |
 bernardbulletinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $6.84 | $7.74 | +$0.89 | 70% 373-160 (533) |
LucerysInvested
$143.42
Value
$143.42
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$29.43
Value
$29.43
PnL
+$0
Record
11%
35-271 (306)
Invested
$24.42
Value
$24.56
PnL
+$0.15
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Invested
$24.53
Value
$24.53
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1595-1413 (3008)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100Invested
$6.84
Value
$7.74
PnL
+$0.89
Record
70%
373-160 (533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.