Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli win the next Lima mayoral elections?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $26 held · ended Oct 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$25.7

Combined PnL

-$325.37

Smart Money Entry

2¢ → 0.1¢

-92% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$25.7

Total Shares17,133

Combined PnL-$325.37

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

743h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 2¢	$238.68	$17.54	-$221.14	47% 479-535 (1014)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$47.56	$3.5	-$44.07	89% 9267-1189 (10456)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$34.62	$2.18	-$36.89	45% 1527-1832 (3359)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$18.34	$1.96	-$16.38	58% 16712-12344 (29056)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$5.52	$0.42	-$5.1	92% 8456-738 (9194)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yes	$51	$0.1	-$1.81	56% 5852-4578 (10430)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$238.68

Value

$17.54

PnL

-$221.14

Record

47%

479-535 (1014)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.56

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$44.07

Record

89%

9267-1189 (10456)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.62

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$36.89

Record

45%

1527-1832 (3359)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.34

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$16.38

Record

58%

16712-12344 (29056)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.52

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$5.1

Record

92%

8456-738 (9194)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.81

Record

56%

5852-4578 (10430)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

743h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.