Will Republicans win young men in the midterms?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $65 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$64.68
-$16.6
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | No | $39.81 | $39.81 | +$1.73 | 53% 4521-4027 (8548) |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $17.3 | $23.66 | +$6.35 | 73% 3011-1098 (4109) |
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $22.88 | $1.1 | -$20.93 | 50% 1032-1049 (2081) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $3.86 | $0.11 | -$3.75 | 19% 2872-12252 (15124) |
Invested
$39.81
Value
$39.81
PnL
+$1.73
Record
53%
4521-4027 (8548)
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$17.3
Value
$23.66
PnL
+$6.35
Record
73%
3011-1098 (4109)
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$22.88
Value
$1.1
PnL
-$20.93
Record
50%
1032-1049 (2081)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.86
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$3.75
Record
19%
2872-12252 (15124)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.