Will Republicans win white women in the midterms?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $156 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$155.52
$32.37
68¢ → 99.6¢
+46% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO donthackme | Noavg 65.6¢ | $72.07 | $109.24 | +$37.17 | 73% 12972-4916 (17888) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $20.09 | $29.81 | +$9.72 | 49% 8980-9510 (18490) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $34.98 | $13.04 | +$1.12 | 31% 2678-6002 (8680) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $12 | $2.6 | -$9.6 | 56% 16121-12865 (28986) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $44.62 | $0.16 | -$6.04 | 51% 290-283 (573) |
Invested
$72.07
Value
$109.24
PnL
+$37.17
Record
73%
12972-4916 (17888)
Invested
$20.09
Value
$29.81
PnL
+$9.72
Record
49%
8980-9510 (18490)
Invested
$34.98
Value
$13.04
PnL
+$1.12
Record
31%
2678-6002 (8680)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$12
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$9.6
Record
56%
16121-12865 (28986)
Invested
$44.62
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$6.04
Record
51%
290-283 (573)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.