Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win the Texas Senate seat, and Democrats win Michigan and Maine?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 3.9¢ · $20 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$19.64
-$53.48
Research grade
AvoidYes at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $64.34 | $17.08 | -$47.26 | 39% 187-288 (475) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $8.47 | $2.25 | -$6.22 | 25% 180-537 (717) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.